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Authors: M. A. Raheem, W. B. Yahya, K. O. Obisesan
Title: [download]
(3679)
A Markov Approach On Pattern of Rainfall Distribution
Reference: Vol. 7, Issue 1, Sep 2015
Submitted 2014-03-03, Accepted 2015-01-16
Type: Article
Abstract:

A three-state Markov chain was employed to examine the pattern and distribution of daily rainfall in Uyo metropolis of Nigeria using 15 years (1995-2009) rainfall data obtained from University of Uyo meteorological centre. The Chi-square (χ2) and WS test statistics were used to test the goodness of fit of Markov chain to the data. Each year was divided into three different periods viz: Pre-monsoon (Jan 1 − March 31), Monsoon (April − Sept. 30) and Post-monsoon (Oct. 1 − Dec. 31). A day was regarded as a dry day if the rainfall was not more than 2.50mm, as a wet day if the rainfall was between 2.51mm to 5.00mm and as a rainy day if rainfall was above 5.00mm. Based on the three conditions of rainfall (dry, wet and rainy) and the statistical techniques applied, it was observed that for the Pre-Monsoon period with Weather Cycle (WC) of 12 days in Uyo metropolis, the expected length (duration) of dry, wet and rainy days were 10 days, 1 day and 1 day respectively. Also, for the Monsoon period with a WC of 5 days, the expected length of dry, wet and rainy days were 2 days, 1 day and 2days while for the Post-Monsoon period with a WC of 8 days, the expected length of dry, wet and rainy days were 6 days, 1 day and 2days respectively.

Paper: [download]
(3679)
A MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH ON PATTERN OF RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
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