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Authors: Amy A. Morin, Alisha Albert-Green, Douglas G. Woolford, David L. Martell
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Frailty Models for the Control Time of Wildland Fires in the Former Intensive Fire Management Zone of Ontario, Canada
Reference: Vol. 9, Issue 5, Sep 2019
Submitted 2019-05-01, Accepted 2019-09-15
Type: Article
Abstract:

Using the control time of a forest or wildland fire, defined as the time from the start of suppression action to the time that it is declared under control, we extend the analysis from Morin et al. (2015) to investigate spatial trends in forest fire survival probability across Ontario’s Intensive Fire Management Zone for the period 1989 to 2004. The fire management compartments (FMCs) described in Woolford et al. (2009) form the spatial units of analysis. Spatial differences are explored in our study region by using proportional hazards shared frailty models which incorporate a random effect to modify the hazard for fires within each FMC. Estimates of this excess risk are used to visualize spatial patterns. We show that the frailty models achieve better fit, as compared to the models without frailty terms, and that the model assumptions are suitable for these data. Visualizing the estimated FMC-specific frailties suggest the following: lightning-caused fires in a region of northwestern Ontario have experienced shorter control times than comparable lightning fires that occur elsewhere; and, people-caused fires in that same region in northwestern Ontario as well as a region of southern Ontario may also have experienced shorter control times than comparable people-caused fires that have occurred elsewhere.

Paper: [download]
(3242)
Frailty Models for the Control Time of Wildland Fires in the Former Intensive Fire Management Zone of Ontario, Canada
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